The United States Geological Survey (USGS) publishes regularly
fluorspar price, mine production, and other data. Using this data, the graphs below on
fluorspar, using 1996 to 2012 price and mine production data, were created.
Also, a regression analysis of the data, using Excel, was
done to determine how closely the price and mine production quantity changes
correlated with one another from year to year.
The R square result of this regression analysis is 81%, generally
considered to indicate a good correlation between changes in two sets of
data. This suggests that often when fluorspar
price went up (or down) so did the amount of fluorspar mined go up (or down),
from year to year. There seems to be a
relationship between the two events – price changes and amounts mined.
Fluorspar’s price per ton increased 287% from 1996 to 2012, using
average fluorspar acid prices for the year provided by the USGS in their reports
(from $141 per ton in 1996 to $545 per ton in the first quarter 2012). This is an average annual increase of 22%. And, the fluorspar mine production went from
4,090,000 metric tons in 1996 to 6,850,000 metric tons in 2012, a 5% per year
increase.
USGS estimates 240,000,000 metric tons fluorspar in mining
company’s reserves (2012). This is enough
fluorspar inventories to last 35 years at 2012 mine production levels
(6,850,000 metric tons). So, it seems
that it is not insufficient amounts of fluorspar reserves but other constraints
that mostly affect the price fluctuations from year to year.
Projecting the amount of fluorspar mined over the short-term
upcoming months, based on best mining activity data available and good estimates,
could be useful in predicting price trends.
The USGS reports used for the data in the graphs below can
be read by clicking here: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. USGS issues
similar reports on many other minerals, elements, and compounds mined. The USGS reports are an excellent data source
on these materials.
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